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Prediction for CME (2026-06-03T11:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-03T11:48Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46601/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the north/northwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery, and to the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an X1.0 flare and subsequent eruption from Active Region 14455 (N14W16) starting around 2026-06-03T11:20Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304, and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. The associated ejecta displays a southeast deflection as seen in SDO AIA 304 imagery. A faint EUV wave is observed moving northwest of the eruption site, however, in SDO AIA 193 imagery. L1 arrival is likely to be 3 merged CMES 2026-06-03T11:48Z, 2026-06-03T07:23Z, 026-06-03T01:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-05T04:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-05T01:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note: 
Predicted CME shock arrival time: 2026-06-05T01:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70%
Max Kp Range: 5-8
Lead Time: 25.02 hour(s)
Difference: 3.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2026-06-04T03:22Z
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